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Illertissen vs Aschaffenburg Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 30 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 17:00

Illertissen

PPG 1.79 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Aschaffenburg

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in GOOD form (1.79), Away POOR (0.86) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-11.4%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.8%1-14.4%1-21.7%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.5%2-17.2%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.3%3-17.9%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-019.3%4+-114.7%4+-25.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 84.9% — — —

Draw 9.9% — — —

Away win 5.3% — — —

Over 2.5 76.7% — — —

Over 3.5 57.3% — — —

BTTS 51.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.4%

H 85% / xG 3.3-0.8 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.3%

#2 2–0 9.5%

#3 4–0 8.4%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Illertissen3.3

Aschaffenburg0.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.7% · O3.5 PROB 57.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ILLERTISSEN · PPG 1.79

ASCHAFFENBURG · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.79), Away POOR (0.86) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Illertissen (H) 84.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 9.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aschaffenburg (A) 5.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Illertissen face Aschaffenburg in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Illertissen a 85% chance, the draw 10% and Aschaffenburg 5%, so Illertissen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Illertissen and 0.8 for Aschaffenburg (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Illertissen are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.86 for Aschaffenburg. This match finished 0-2.

Illertissen vs Aschaffenburg Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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