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Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 2 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 18:00

Al-Fayha

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDW ·

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

PPG 2.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-18.5%0-28.3%0-35.4%0-4+4.2%1 1-05.1%1-110.0%1-29.8%1-36.4%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.0%2-15.9%2-25.8%2-33.8%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.2%3-12.3%3-22.3%3-31.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.9% 8.3% 12.00 +119.3%

Draw 24.4% 17.2% 5.80 +24.9%

Away win 50.6% 82.0% 1.22 -38.3%

Over 2.5 57.4% 69.0% 1.45 -16.8%

Over 3.5 36.6% 47.6% 2.10 -23.1%

BTTS 54.7% 54.6% 1.83 +0.1%

Home O1.5 32.4% 21.1% 4.75 +53.9%

Away O1.5 55.2% 78.1% 1.28 -29.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -30.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob54.7%

A 51% / xG 1.2-2.0 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.3%

#4 2–1 5.9%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Fayha1.2

Al-Hilal Saudi FC2.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-FAYHA · PPG 1.44

AL-HILAL SAUDI FC · PPG 2.09

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.78 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Al-Fayha (H) 24.9%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +119.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +24.9%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (A) 50.6%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -38.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Fayha face Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Fayha a 25% chance, the draw 24% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51%, so Al-Hilal Saudi FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al-Fayha and 2.0 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Fayha are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 2.09 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +108.3%. This match finished 0-3.

Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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