Today / Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest / Homburg vs Eintracht Trier

Homburg vs Eintracht Trier Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 30 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 17:00

Homburg

PPG 1.79 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Eintracht Trier

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.79) vs P(Home)=63.9%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.1%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.8%1-19.0%1-24.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.0%3-17.2%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-16.6%4+-23.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% — — —

Draw 19.5% — — —

Away win 16.6% — — —

Over 2.5 62.3% — — —

Over 3.5 40.0% — — —

BTTS 56.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob56.9%

H 64% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 9.6%

#3 1–1 9.0%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Homburg2.2

Eintracht Trier1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HOMBURG · PPG 1.79

EINTRACHT TRIER · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.79) vs P(Home)=63.9%

Win probability 1X2

Homburg (H) 63.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Eintracht Trier (A) 16.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Homburg face Eintracht Trier in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Homburg a 64% chance, the draw 20% and Eintracht Trier 17%, so Homburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Homburg and 1.0 for Eintracht Trier (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Homburg are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.67 for Eintracht Trier. This match finished 1-2.

Homburg vs Eintracht Trier Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest Predictions