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FSV Mainz B vs Sandhausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 30 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 17:00

FSV Mainz B

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sandhausen

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.64)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.6%0-23.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.7%1-110.3%1-26.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.3%3-15.8%3-23.8%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.0%4+-22.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% — — —

Draw 22.8% — — —

Away win 28.0% — — —

Over 2.5 61.2% — — —

Over 3.5 38.9% — — —

BTTS 61.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.8%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 7.7%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FSV Mainz B1.8

Sandhausen1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FSV MAINZ B · PPG 2.00

SANDHAUSEN · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.64)

Win probability 1X2

FSV Mainz B (H) 49.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sandhausen (A) 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FSV Mainz B face Sandhausen in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FSV Mainz B a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Sandhausen 28%, so FSV Mainz B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FSV Mainz B and 1.3 for Sandhausen (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FSV Mainz B are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.64 for Sandhausen. This match finished 1-3.

FSV Mainz B vs Sandhausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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