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Freiburg B vs Bahlinger Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 30 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 17:00

Freiburg B

PPG 1.40 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bahlinger

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.5%0-21.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-03.2%1-14.7%1-23.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-04.9%2-17.3%2-25.4%2-32.6%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.1%3-17.5%3-25.6%3-32.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-112.7%4+-29.4%4+-34.6%4+-4+2.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.0% — — —

Draw 14.8% — — —

Away win 15.2% — — —

Over 2.5 83.6% — — —

Over 3.5 67.2% — — —

BTTS 73.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob73.7%

H 70% / xG 3.1-1.5 / O2.5 84% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 7.3%

#3 4–1 5.9%

#4 3–2 5.6%

#5 2–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Freiburg B3.1

Bahlinger1.5

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.6% · O3.5 PROB 67.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FREIBURG B · PPG 1.40

BAHLINGER · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.40), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Freiburg B (H) 70.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 14.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bahlinger (A) 15.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Freiburg B face Bahlinger in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Freiburg B a 70% chance, the draw 15% and Bahlinger 15%, so Freiburg B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Freiburg B and 1.5 for Bahlinger (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 84% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Freiburg B are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.50 for Bahlinger. This match finished 4-0.

Freiburg B vs Bahlinger Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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