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Phoenix Rising vs Colorado Springs Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 02:00

Phoenix Rising

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Colorado Springs

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.6%0-24.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.1%1-111.2%1-26.8%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.5%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.4%3-15.4%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 42.0% 2.38 +11.6%

Draw 24.3% 29.9% 3.35 -11.2%

Away win 28.8% 38.2% 2.62 -14.7%

Over 2.5 53.9% 55.6% 1.80 -3.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 54.7% 61.7% 1.62 -11.4%

Home O1.5 48.8% 46.5% 2.15 +4.9%

Away O1.5 37.3% 43.5% 2.30 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Phoenix Rising1.7

Colorado Springs1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PHOENIX RISING · PPG 1.44

COLORADO SPRINGS · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Phoenix Rising (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +11.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.2%

Colorado Springs (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Phoenix Rising face Colorado Springs in USA - USL Championship on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Phoenix Rising a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Colorado Springs 29%, so Phoenix Rising are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Phoenix Rising and 1.2 for Colorado Springs (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Phoenix Rising are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.89 for Colorado Springs. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +40.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Phoenix Rising vs Colorado Springs Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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