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Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 8 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 17:00

Torpedo Kutaisi

PPG 1.75 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Samgurali

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+20.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-15.9%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.5%1-19.1%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.7%2-17.1%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.7%3-13.7%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-12.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.7% 54.6% 1.83 +20.2%

Draw 24.5% 33.3% 3.00 -26.5%

Away win 9.8% 25.6% 3.90 -61.8%

Over 2.5 31.8% — — —

Over 3.5 14.0% — — —

BTTS 27.3% 52.4% 1.91 -47.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob27.3%

H 66% / xG 1.6-0.4 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 27%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.5%

#2 2–0 16.7%

#3 0–0 13.8%

#4 1–1 9.1%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torpedo Kutaisi1.6

Samgurali0.4

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.8% · O3.5 PROB 14.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TORPEDO KUTAISI · PPG 1.75

SAMGURALI · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Torpedo Kutaisi (H) 65.7%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +20.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -26.5%

Samgurali (A) 9.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -61.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torpedo Kutaisi face Samgurali in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torpedo Kutaisi a 66% chance, the draw 25% and Samgurali 10%, so Torpedo Kutaisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Torpedo Kutaisi and 0.4 for Samgurali (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 27% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torpedo Kutaisi are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Samgurali. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +20.2%. This match finished 6-1.

Torpedo Kutaisi vs Samgurali Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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