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Corpus Christi vs NY Cosmos Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 00:30

Corpus Christi

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

NY Cosmos

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-12.9%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.8%1-17.2%1-22.6%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.3%2-19.0%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.3%3-17.5%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.8%4+-18.6%4+-23.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.2% 61.0% 1.64 +8.6%

Draw 19.8% 26.3% 3.80 -14.9%

Away win 14.1% 22.2% 4.50 -21.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 38.5% 2.60 -4.6%

BTTS 51.8% 61.7% 1.62 -16.1%

Home O1.5 65.1% 62.5% 1.60 +4.2%

Away O1.5 17.9% 33.3% 3.00 -27.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.8%

H 66% / xG 2.5-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.3%

#2 1–1 7.2%

#3 3–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 1–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Corpus Christi2.5

NY Cosmos0.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CORPUS CHRISTI · PPG 2.00

NY COSMOS · PPG 0.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.78 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Corpus Christi (H) 66.2%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +8.6%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -14.9%

NY Cosmos (A) 14.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Corpus Christi face NY Cosmos in USA - USL League One on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Corpus Christi a 66% chance, the draw 20% and NY Cosmos 14%, so Corpus Christi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Corpus Christi and 0.7 for NY Cosmos (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Corpus Christi are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.00 for NY Cosmos. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Corpus Christi vs NY Cosmos Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL League One Predictions