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Houston Dash W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 00:00

Houston Dash W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Chicago Red Stars W

PPG 0.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-15.0%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.8%1-19.2%1-22.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.5%2-18.5%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.6%3-15.3%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-13.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 64.5% 1.55 -7.8%

Draw 23.7% 25.0% 4.00 -3.1%

Away win 16.8% 20.0% 5.00 -9.6%

Over 2.5 50.1% 61.7% 1.62 -18.8%

Over 3.5 28.1% 40.0% 2.50 -17.8%

BTTS 47.6% 60.6% 1.65 -21.5%

Home O1.5 54.9% 65.4% 1.53 -16.0%

Away O1.5 16.4% 32.3% 3.10 -29.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.6%

H 60% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.5%

#2 1–0 16.8%

#3 1–1 9.2%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 3–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Houston Dash W1.8

Chicago Red Stars W0.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HOUSTON DASH W · PPG 1.50

CHICAGO RED STARS W · PPG 0.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Houston Dash W (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -7.8%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.1%

Chicago Red Stars W (A) 16.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Houston Dash W face Chicago Red Stars W in USA - NWSL on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Houston Dash W a 60% chance, the draw 24% and Chicago Red Stars W 17%, so Houston Dash W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Houston Dash W and 0.5 for Chicago Red Stars W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Houston Dash W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.30 for Chicago Red Stars W. This match finished 5-0.

Houston Dash W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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