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Vila Nova vs Ponte Preta Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 23 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 23:30

Vila Nova

PPG 2.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDW

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-12.7%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.8%1-16.9%1-22.4%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.6%2-18.8%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.7%3-17.5%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.7%4+-18.9%4+-23.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.1% 72.5% 1.38 -10.2%

Draw 19.5% 23.3% 4.30 -9.7%

Away win 15.4% 11.4% 8.80 +21.3%

Over 2.5 59.7% 52.6% 1.90 +13.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 30.8% 3.25 +18.9%

BTTS 49.3% 47.6% 2.10 +3.5%

Home O1.5 65.1% 63.7% 1.57 +2.2%

Away O1.5 17.9% 18.2% 5.50 -0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.3%

H 65% / xG 2.6-0.7 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.6%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 3–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 1–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vila Nova2.6

Ponte Preta0.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VILA NOVA · PPG 2.30

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.30

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.86 for Home, form 2.30 vs 0.30 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vila Nova (H) 65.1%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -10.2%

Draw 19.5%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -9.7%

Ponte Preta (A) 15.4%

ODDS 8.80 · IMPLIED 11.4% EV +21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vila Nova face Ponte Preta in Brazil - Serie B on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vila Nova a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Ponte Preta 15%, so Vila Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Vila Nova and 0.7 for Ponte Preta (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vila Nova are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 0.30 for Ponte Preta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.9%. This match finished 6-0.

Vila Nova vs Ponte Preta Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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