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Sarasota Paradise vs Chattanooga Red Wolves Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 23:30

Sarasota Paradise

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chattanooga Red Wolves

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.8%0-25.3%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.5%1-111.7%1-28.0%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-18.7%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.2%3-14.4%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.8% 44.4% 2.25 -3.7%

Draw 23.6% 29.4% 3.40 -11.9%

Away win 33.6% 35.7% 2.80 -5.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 55.6% 1.80 +7.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 33.3% 3.00 +9.8%

BTTS 61.3% 60.6% 1.65 +1.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 47.6% 2.10 -16.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 40.8% 2.45 +0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarasota Paradise1.5

Chattanooga Red Wolves1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SARASOTA PARADISE · PPG 1.44

CHATTANOOGA RED WOLVES · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sarasota Paradise (H) 42.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -3.7%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.9%

Chattanooga Red Wolves (A) 33.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarasota Paradise face Chattanooga Red Wolves in USA - USL League One on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarasota Paradise a 43% chance, the draw 24% and Chattanooga Red Wolves 34%, so Sarasota Paradise are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sarasota Paradise and 1.4 for Chattanooga Red Wolves (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarasota Paradise are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.44 for Chattanooga Red Wolves. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Sarasota Paradise vs Chattanooga Red Wolves Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL League One Predictions