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One Knoxville vs Portland Hearts of Pine Prediction— USA - USL League One

Group Stage ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 23:00

One Knoxville

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Portland Hearts of Pine

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.1%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.5%1-17.6%1-23.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.5%2-19.4%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.7%3-17.8%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-18.6%4+-23.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.5% 61.0% 1.64 +0.9%

Draw 18.4% 25.0% 4.00 -15.8%

Away win 20.1% 23.8% 4.20 -9.3%

Over 2.5 63.6% 64.5% 1.55 -1.4%

Over 3.5 40.7% 41.7% 2.40 -2.3%

BTTS 54.7% 64.5% 1.55 -15.2%

Home O1.5 65.1% 64.5% 1.55 +0.9%

Away O1.5 22.8% 36.4% 2.75 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 62% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.5%

#2 1–1✓ 7.6%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 3–0 8.7%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

One Knoxville2.5

Portland Hearts of Pine0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ONE KNOXVILLE · PPG 1.90

PORTLAND HEARTS OF PINE · PPG 0.90

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.58 for Home, form 1.90 vs 0.90 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

One Knoxville (H) 61.5%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +0.9%

Draw 18.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -15.8%

Portland Hearts of Pine (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

One Knoxville face Portland Hearts of Pine in USA - USL League One on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives One Knoxville a 62% chance, the draw 18% and Portland Hearts of Pine 20%, so One Knoxville are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for One Knoxville and 0.9 for Portland Hearts of Pine (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, One Knoxville are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.90 for Portland Hearts of Pine. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.7%. This match finished 1-1.

One Knoxville vs Portland Hearts of Pine Prediction— USA - USL League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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