Today / USA - NWSL / Racing Louisville W vs Seattle Reign FC W

Racing Louisville W vs Seattle Reign FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 22:30

Racing Louisville W

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Seattle Reign FC W

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.6%0-24.2%0-32.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.5%1-19.9%1-27.6%1-33.9%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.5%3-15.3%3-24.0%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.5%4+-22.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 38.5% 2.60 +23.8%

Draw 22.9% 29.0% 3.45 -12.6%

Away win 29.5% 42.6% 2.35 -18.4%

Over 2.5 63.6% 60.6% 1.65 +4.9%

Over 3.5 41.0% 38.5% 2.60 +6.6%

BTTS 63.2% 66.7% 1.50 -5.2%

Home O1.5 48.8% 47.6% 2.10 +2.5%

Away O1.5 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1✓ 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–0 5.8%

#5 2–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Racing Louisville W1.8

Seattle Reign FC W1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RACING LOUISVILLE W · PPG 1.56

SEATTLE REIGN FC W · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Racing Louisville W (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +23.8%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -12.6%

Seattle Reign FC W (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Racing Louisville W face Seattle Reign FC W in USA - NWSL on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Racing Louisville W a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Seattle Reign FC W 30%, so Racing Louisville W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Racing Louisville W and 1.5 for Seattle Reign FC W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Racing Louisville W are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.44 for Seattle Reign FC W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +29.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Racing Louisville W vs Seattle Reign FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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