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Farnborough vs Chesham United Prediction— England - National League - South

National League South · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 18:45

Farnborough

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Chesham United

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.7%0-23.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.3%1-110.5%1-26.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.6%3-15.8%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.0%4+-22.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 34.5% 2.90 +42.4%

Draw 24.1% 28.6% 3.50 -9.4%

Away win 26.8% 47.6% 2.10 -26.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 38.5% 2.60 -4.8%

BTTS 60.3% 65.4% 1.53 -7.7%

Home O1.5 51.9% 43.5% 2.30 +19.4%

Away O1.5 37.3% 54.1% 1.85 -31.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.3%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 1–0✓ 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Farnborough1.8

Chesham United1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FARNBOROUGH · PPG 1.17

CHESHAM UNITED · PPG 1.04

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Farnborough (H) 49.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +42.4%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.4%

Chesham United (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -26.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Farnborough face Chesham United in England - National League - South on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Farnborough a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Chesham United 27%, so Farnborough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Farnborough and 1.3 for Chesham United (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Farnborough are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.04 for Chesham United. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +49.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Farnborough vs Chesham United Prediction— England - National League - South

Match Preview & Prediction

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