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CSKA Moscow vs Rostov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Regular Season - 26 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 16:45

CSKA Moscow

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Rostov

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+30.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-15.3%0-21.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.2%1-19.3%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.9%2-18.2%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.3%3-14.8%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-13.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.6% 51.8% 1.93 +30.5%

Draw 22.1% 27.2% 3.68 -18.7%

Away win 10.3% 24.4% 4.10 -57.8%

Over 2.5 39.3% 50.8% 1.97 -22.6%

Over 3.5 19.2% 30.1% 3.32 -36.3%

BTTS 33.1% 56.2% 1.78 -41.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob33.1%

H 68% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.2%

#2 2–0 15.9%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 1–1✓ 9.3%

#5 3–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSKA Moscow1.7

Rostov0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CSKA MOSCOW · PPG 2.33

ROSTOV · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

CSKA Moscow (H) 67.6%

ODDS 1.93 · IMPLIED 51.8% EV +30.5%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.68 · IMPLIED 27.2% EV -18.7%

Rostov (A) 10.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -57.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSKA Moscow face Rostov in Russia - Premier League on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSKA Moscow a 68% chance, the draw 22% and Rostov 10%, so CSKA Moscow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for CSKA Moscow and 0.5 for Rostov (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSKA Moscow are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Rostov. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.5%. This match finished 1-1.

CSKA Moscow vs Rostov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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