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Hajduk Split vs Osijek Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Regular Season - 31 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 16:45

Hajduk Split

PPG 2.13 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Osijek

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 78.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-13.0%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.0%1-16.9%1-21.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.2%2-18.0%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.5%3-16.1%3-21.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.4%4+-16.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.5% 73.0% 1.37 +7.5%

Draw 15.2% 23.8% 4.20 -36.2%

Away win 6.3% 12.3% 8.10 -49.0%

Over 2.5 53.0% 55.6% 1.80 -4.6%

Over 3.5 30.8% 33.9% 2.95 -9.1%

BTTS 35.0% 51.3% 1.95 -31.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob35.0%

H 78% / xG 2.3-0.5 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.2%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 3–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 4–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hajduk Split2.3

Osijek0.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HAJDUK SPLIT · PPG 2.13

OSIJEK · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.13), Away POOR (0.87) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Hajduk Split (H) 78.5%

ODDS 1.37 · IMPLIED 73.0% EV +7.5%

Draw 15.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -36.2%

Osijek (A) 6.3%

ODDS 8.10 · IMPLIED 12.3% EV -49.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hajduk Split face Osijek in Croatia - HNL on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hajduk Split a 79% chance, the draw 15% and Osijek 6%, so Hajduk Split are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Hajduk Split and 0.5 for Osijek (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hajduk Split are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.87 for Osijek. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Hajduk Split vs Osijek Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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