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Wurzburger K. vs Bayreuth Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 30 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 16:30

Wurzburger K.

PPG 2.36 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Bayreuth

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.36), Away POOR (0.93) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-13.0%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.5%1-17.0%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.7%2-18.2%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.2%3-16.3%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.3%4+-16.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.2% — — —

Draw 15.2% — — —

Away win 6.6% — — —

Over 2.5 54.2% — — —

Over 3.5 31.9% — — —

BTTS 36.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob36.6%

H 78% / xG 2.3-0.5 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.7%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 3–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 4–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wurzburger K.2.3

Bayreuth0.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.2% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

WURZBURGER K. · PPG 2.36

BAYREUTH · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.36), Away POOR (0.93) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Wurzburger K. (H) 78.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bayreuth (A) 6.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Wurzburger K. face Bayreuth in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wurzburger K. a 78% chance, the draw 15% and Bayreuth 7%, so Wurzburger K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Wurzburger K. and 0.5 for Bayreuth (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wurzburger K. are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 0.93 for Bayreuth. This match finished 1-1.

Wurzburger K. vs Bayreuth Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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