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Al Tai vs Abha Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 16:15

Al Tai

PPG 1.21 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Abha

PPG 2.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5% — a clear edge.

+13.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-111.5%0-212.1%0-38.5%0-4+7.3%1 1-04.4%1-19.2%1-29.7%1-36.8%1-4+5.8%2 2-01.8%2-13.7%2-23.9%2-32.7%2-4+2.3%3 3-00.5%3-11.0%3-21.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.1% 22.7% 4.40 -42.4%

Draw 19.4% 28.2% 3.55 -31.1%

Away win 67.5% 59.5% 1.68 +13.4%

Over 2.5 55.6% 57.8% 1.73 -3.8%

Over 3.5 33.2% 36.4% 2.75 -8.7%

BTTS 48.4% 60.6% 1.65 -20.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob48.4%

A 68% / xG 0.8-2.1 / O2.5 56% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.1%

#2 0–1 11.5%

#3 1–2✓ 9.7%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 0–3 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Tai0.8

Abha2.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.6% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL TAI · PPG 1.21

ABHA · PPG 2.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.71) vs Home AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Al Tai (H) 13.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -42.4%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -31.1%

Abha (A) 67.5%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Tai face Abha in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Tai a 13% chance, the draw 19% and Abha 68%, so Abha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Al Tai and 2.1 for Abha (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Tai are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 2.71 for Abha. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Al Tai vs Abha Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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