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SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 18 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 11:35

SHANGHAI SIPG

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Dalian Zhixing

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.5%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.7%1-18.3%1-24.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-19.7%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.0%3-17.6%3-24.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-17.7%4+-24.1%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 70.4% 1.42 -20.5%

Draw 22.1% 22.5% 4.45 -1.0%

Away win 21.9% 15.6% 6.40 +24.1%

Over 2.5 63.3% 69.0% 1.45 -8.2%

Over 3.5 40.2% 46.5% 2.15 -13.6%

BTTS 61.2% 63.7% 1.57 -3.9%

Home O1.5 65.1% 72.5% 1.38 -10.2%

Away O1.5 34.9% 30.8% 3.25 +13.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.2%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.3%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–2 4.4%

#5 3–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SHANGHAI SIPG2.3

Dalian Zhixing1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANGHAI SIPG · PPG 1.50

DALIAN ZHIXING · PPG 0.73

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

SHANGHAI SIPG (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -20.5%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -1.0%

Dalian Zhixing (A) 21.9%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

SHANGHAI SIPG face Dalian Zhixing in China - Super League on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Dalian Zhixing 22%, so SHANGHAI SIPG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.1 for Dalian Zhixing (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.73 for Dalian Zhixing. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 1-1.

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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