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Al Arabi vs Al Bukayriyah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 16:05

Al Arabi

PPG 0.71 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Al Bukayriyah

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+27.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-119.6%0-213.5%0-36.2%0-4+2.9%1 1-08.2%1-111.2%1-27.7%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-02.3%2-13.2%2-22.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.4%3-10.6%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.5% 34.5% 2.90 -55.0%

Draw 27.9% 30.8% 3.25 -9.3%

Away win 56.6% 44.4% 2.25 +27.4%

Over 2.5 30.9% 51.3% 1.95 -39.7%

Over 3.5 13.3% 29.0% 3.45 -54.1%

BTTS 32.5% 57.8% 1.73 -43.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob32.5%

A 57% / xG 0.6-1.4 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 19.6%

#2 0–0 14.3%

#3 0–2 13.5%

#4 1–1✓ 11.2%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Arabi0.6

Al Bukayriyah1.4

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.9% · O3.5 PROB 13.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ARABI · PPG 0.71

AL BUKAYRIYAH · PPG 1.29

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs Home POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Al Arabi (H) 15.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -55.0%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.3%

Al Bukayriyah (A) 56.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Arabi face Al Bukayriyah in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Arabi a 16% chance, the draw 28% and Al Bukayriyah 57%, so Al Bukayriyah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Al Arabi and 1.4 for Al Bukayriyah (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Arabi are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.29 for Al Bukayriyah. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Al Arabi vs Al Bukayriyah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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