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AC Horsens vs Esbjerg Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Promotion Group - 26 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 16:00

AC Horsens

PPG 1.50 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

Esbjerg

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-111.6%0-25.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.5%1-113.4%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.3%2-17.7%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.2%3-12.9%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 45.9% 2.18 -10.8%

Draw 30.0% 31.7% 3.15 -5.5%

Away win 29.1% 31.3% 3.20 -6.9%

Over 2.5 34.2% 46.5% 2.15 -26.5%

Over 3.5 15.5% 25.3% 3.95 -38.8%

BTTS 41.1% 54.6% 1.83 -24.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob41.1%

H 41% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.5%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–0 12.6%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AC Horsens1.1

Esbjerg0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AC HORSENS · PPG 1.50

ESBJERG · PPG 1.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.42)

Win probability 1X2

AC Horsens (H) 40.9%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -10.8%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -5.5%

Esbjerg (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

AC Horsens face Esbjerg in Denmark - 1. Division on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AC Horsens a 41% chance, the draw 30% and Esbjerg 29%, so AC Horsens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for AC Horsens and 0.9 for Esbjerg (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AC Horsens are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.42 for Esbjerg. This match finished 4-1.

AC Horsens vs Esbjerg Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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