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Londrina vs Atletico Goianiense Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 23 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 22:30

Londrina

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atletico Goianiense

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-111.1%0-25.7%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.9%1-113.3%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.8%2-18.0%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.1%3-13.2%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 37.0% 2.70 +19.3%

Draw 26.7% 32.3% 3.10 -10.3%

Away win 29.1% 37.7% 2.65 -13.7%

Over 2.5 49.9% 47.6% 2.10 +4.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 53.1% 56.5% 1.77 -6.0%

Home O1.5 31.7% 38.5% 2.60 -17.6%

Away O1.5 31.6% 39.2% 2.55 -19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 139 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 21.2%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 44% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Londrina1.2

Atletico Goianiense1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LONDRINA · PPG 1.20

ATLETICO GOIANIENSE · PPG 1.30

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 2.23 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Londrina (H) 44.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +19.3%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.3%

Atletico Goianiense (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Londrina face Atletico Goianiense in Brazil - Serie B on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Londrina a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Atletico Goianiense 29%, so Londrina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Londrina and 1.0 for Atletico Goianiense (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Londrina are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.30 for Atletico Goianiense. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.0%.

Londrina vs Atletico Goianiense Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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