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CRB vs Novorizontino Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 21:30

CRB

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Novorizontino

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+29.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-17.1%0-25.8%0-33.2%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.5%1-110.6%1-28.7%1-34.8%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.0%2-26.6%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.4%3-14.0%3-23.3%3-31.8%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 41.3% 2.42 -3.2%

Draw 24.6% 31.7% 3.15 -13.5%

Away win 35.4% 34.2% 2.92 +3.4%

Over 2.5 61.7% 47.6% 2.10 +29.6%

Over 3.5 38.6% 26.3% 3.80 +46.7%

BTTS 61.6% 56.5% 1.77 +9.0%

Home O1.5 45.1% 41.7% 2.40 +8.2%

Away O1.5 47.7% 35.7% 2.80 +33.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 20.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.6%

A 35% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–0 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CRB1.5

Novorizontino1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 38.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CRB · PPG 1.40

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 1.45

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CRB (H) 40.0%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -3.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -13.5%

Novorizontino (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

CRB face Novorizontino in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CRB a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Novorizontino 35%, so CRB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for CRB and 1.6 for Novorizontino (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CRB are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.45 for Novorizontino. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +46.7%.

CRB vs Novorizontino Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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