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Ceara vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 19:00

Ceara

PPG 1.36 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cuiaba

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.2%0-113.8%0-25.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.9%1-112.9%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.3%2-16.0%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.6%3-11.9%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 46.3% 2.16 -8.2%

Draw 32.0% 33.3% 3.00 -4.0%

Away win 25.5% 27.4% 3.65 -4.2%

Over 2.5 34.2% 35.7% 2.80 -4.2%

Over 3.5 17.7% 17.4% 5.75 +1.1%

BTTS 44.6% 44.4% 2.25 +0.4%

Home O1.5 30.2% 37.0% 2.70 -18.5%

Away O1.5 17.2% 23.8% 4.20 -16.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 20.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

H 42% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.2%

#2 1–0 17.9%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 13.8%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceara0.9

Cuiaba0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CEARA · PPG 1.36

CUIABA · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.21, combined xG 1.65 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ceara (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -8.2%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -4.0%

Cuiaba (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceara face Cuiaba in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceara a 43% chance, the draw 32% and Cuiaba 26%, so Ceara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Ceara and 0.7 for Cuiaba (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceara are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.10 for Cuiaba. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.1%.

Ceara vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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