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Ponte Preta vs Nautico Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 22 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 22:30

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.55 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nautico Recife

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-112.4%0-29.6%0-34.9%0-4+2.6%1 1-07.9%1-112.2%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-03.9%2-15.9%2-24.6%2-32.3%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.3%3-11.9%3-21.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.6% 27.0% 3.70 +5.7%

Draw 26.7% 29.0% 3.45 -4.7%

Away win 43.7% 50.8% 1.97 -13.9%

Over 2.5 49.9% 51.8% 1.93 -3.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.3% 3.30 -3.2%

BTTS 53.1% 57.8% 1.73 -8.1%

Home O1.5 30.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

Away O1.5 47.3% 51.3% 1.95 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 20.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.1%

A 44% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 12.4%

#3 0–0 8.1%

#4 0–2 9.6%

#5 1–2 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ponte Preta1.0

Nautico Recife1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.55

NAUTICO RECIFE · PPG 1.09

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.56 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ponte Preta (H) 29.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +5.7%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.7%

Nautico Recife (A) 43.7%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponte Preta face Nautico Recife in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponte Preta a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Nautico Recife 44%, so Nautico Recife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ponte Preta and 1.5 for Nautico Recife (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponte Preta are averaging 0.55 points per game versus 1.09 for Nautico Recife. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.0%.

Ponte Preta vs Nautico Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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