Today / Brazil - Serie B / São Bernardo vs Botafogo SP

São Bernardo vs Botafogo SP Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 22 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 22:30

São Bernardo

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Botafogo SP

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-19.8%0-24.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.4%1-112.9%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-18.5%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.7%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 43.9% 2.28 +4.4%

Draw 26.9% 32.8% 3.05 -10.8%

Away win 27.4% 30.8% 3.25 -6.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 40.8% 2.45 +22.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 21.1% 4.75 +21.8%

BTTS 53.1% 50.0% 2.00 +6.2%

Home O1.5 37.9% 38.5% 2.60 -1.5%

Away O1.5 23.6% 29.0% 3.45 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 20.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 14.4%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

São Bernardo1.3

Botafogo SP0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SÃO BERNARDO · PPG 1.00

BOTAFOGO SP · PPG 0.91

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

São Bernardo (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +4.4%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -10.8%

Botafogo SP (A) 27.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

São Bernardo face Botafogo SP in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives São Bernardo a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Botafogo SP 27%, so São Bernardo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for São Bernardo and 0.9 for Botafogo SP (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, São Bernardo are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.91 for Botafogo SP. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.3%.

São Bernardo vs Botafogo SP Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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