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Juventude vs Fortaleza EC Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 21:30

Juventude

PPG 2.36 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fortaleza EC

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.7%0-18.5%0-21.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.9%1-110.4%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.0%2-16.3%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.7%3-12.6%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.0%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 20.9% — — —

Over 2.5 34.2% — — —

Over 3.5 17.7% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 32.4% — — —

Away O1.5 14.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 20.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 52% / xG 1.2-0.5 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.9%

#2 0–0 18.7%

#3 2–0 14.0%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventude1.2

Fortaleza EC0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUDE · PPG 2.36

FORTALEZA EC · PPG 0.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Juventude (H) 51.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fortaleza EC (A) 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventude face Fortaleza EC in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventude a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Fortaleza EC 21%, so Juventude are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Juventude and 0.5 for Fortaleza EC (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventude are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 0.91 for Fortaleza EC.

Juventude vs Fortaleza EC Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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