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Operario-PR vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

Operario-PR

PPG 1.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Avai

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+24.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-15.3%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.4%1-110.3%1-25.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.5%3-16.4%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-14.9%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 55.6% 1.80 -2.6%

Draw 22.9% 29.0% 3.45 -12.6%

Away win 23.1% 22.5% 4.45 +1.7%

Over 2.5 59.5% 47.6% 2.10 +24.9%

Over 3.5 36.5% 26.7% 3.75 +36.9%

BTTS 54.5% 52.6% 1.90 +3.5%

Home O1.5 54.6% 51.3% 1.95 +6.5%

Away O1.5 27.4% 26.3% 3.80 +2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 20.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Operario-PR1.9

Avai1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OPERARIO-PR · PPG 1.91

AVAI · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Operario-PR (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -2.6%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -12.6%

Avai (A) 23.1%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Operario-PR face Avai in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Operario-PR a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Avai 23%, so Operario-PR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Operario-PR and 1.0 for Avai (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Operario-PR are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.50 for Avai. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.9%.

Operario-PR vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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