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Sport Recife vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 22 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 23:30

Sport Recife

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Londrina

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.0%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.2%1-110.8%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.7%3-15.9%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 61.7% 1.62 -13.0%

Draw 23.6% 26.0% 3.85 -5.5%

Away win 22.7% 19.2% 5.20 +10.8%

Over 2.5 53.7% 52.6% 1.90 +2.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 30.8% 3.25 +3.4%

BTTS 53.6% 54.6% 1.83 -1.9%

Home O1.5 49.2% 57.1% 1.75 -13.9%

Away O1.5 23.6% 25.6% 3.90 -4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 20.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.6%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sport Recife1.8

Londrina0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORT RECIFE · PPG 1.45

LONDRINA · PPG 0.73

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sport Recife (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -13.0%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.5%

Londrina (A) 22.7%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Recife face Londrina in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Recife a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Londrina 23%, so Sport Recife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sport Recife and 0.9 for Londrina (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Recife are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.73 for Londrina. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.2%.

Sport Recife vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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