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Atletico Goianiense vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 19:00

Atletico Goianiense

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vila Nova

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-18.4%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.8%1-112.4%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.1%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.9%3-14.4%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 51.8% 1.93 -0.4%

Draw 25.8% 31.3% 3.20 -10.5%

Away win 22.6% 23.8% 4.20 -3.0%

Over 2.5 49.7% 44.4% 2.25 +11.8%

Over 3.5 28.6% 23.8% 4.20 +12.1%

BTTS 48.9% 51.3% 1.95 -4.6%

Home O1.5 45.1% 46.5% 2.15 -3.0%

Away O1.5 23.6% 26.0% 3.85 -5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 20.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.9%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Goianiense1.5

Vila Nova0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO GOIANIENSE · PPG 1.73

VILA NOVA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Goianiense (H) 51.6%

ODDS 1.93 · IMPLIED 51.8% EV -0.4%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.5%

Vila Nova (A) 22.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Goianiense face Vila Nova in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Goianiense a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Vila Nova 23%, so Atletico Goianiense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Atletico Goianiense and 0.9 for Vila Nova (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Goianiense are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.00 for Vila Nova. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.1%.

Atletico Goianiense vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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