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America Mineiro vs Athletic Club Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 21:30

America Mineiro

PPG 0.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Athletic Club

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-116.6%0-29.6%0-33.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-011.3%1-113.0%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-04.4%2-15.1%2-23.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.2%3-11.3%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 45.0% 2.22 -21.5%

Draw 32.8% 33.3% 3.00 -1.6%

Away win 38.3% 28.6% 3.50 +34.1%

Over 2.5 36.9% 39.2% 2.55 -5.9%

Over 3.5 18.0% 20.0% 5.00 -6.0%

BTTS 45.9% 48.8% 2.05 -5.9%

Home O1.5 30.2% 38.5% 2.60 -21.5%

Away O1.5 34.7% 27.0% 3.70 +28.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 18.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob45.9%

D 33% / xG 0.8-1.2 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 0–1 16.6%

#4 0–2 9.6%

#5 1–0 11.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America Mineiro0.8

Athletic Club1.2

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA MINEIRO · PPG 0.60

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.20

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.37, combined xG 1.94 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

America Mineiro (H) 28.9%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -21.5%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.6%

Athletic Club (A) 38.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +34.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

America Mineiro face Athletic Club in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America Mineiro a 29% chance, the draw 33% and Athletic Club 38%, so Athletic Club are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for America Mineiro and 1.2 for Athletic Club (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America Mineiro are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.20 for Athletic Club. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +28.4%.

America Mineiro vs Athletic Club Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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