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Criciuma vs Goias Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 19:00

Criciuma

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Goias

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 53.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-17.7%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.0%1-111.1%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-18.0%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.6%3-13.9%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-11.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 53.8% 1.86 -3.5%

Draw 26.4% 31.3% 3.20 -9.3%

Away win 21.7% 22.0% 4.55 -0.8%

Over 2.5 42.7% 40.0% 2.50 +6.8%

Over 3.5 22.3% 20.0% 5.00 +6.9%

BTTS 47.7% 47.6% 2.10 +0.2%

Home O1.5 45.1% 44.4% 2.25 +1.5%

Away O1.5 16.7% 22.2% 4.50 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 20.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.7%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.0%

#2 0–0 13.1%

#3 2–0 13.7%

#4 1–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Criciuma1.4

Goias0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 22.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CRICIUMA · PPG 2.20

GOIAS · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Criciuma (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.86 · IMPLIED 53.8% EV -3.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.3%

Goias (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Criciuma face Goias in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Criciuma a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Goias 22%, so Criciuma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Criciuma and 0.6 for Goias (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Criciuma are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.18 for Goias. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.9%.

Criciuma vs Goias Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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