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Al Diraiyah vs Al Raed Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 15:55

Al Diraiyah

PPG 2.64 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Raed

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.8%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.4%1-17.1%1-24.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.3%2-19.2%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.1%3-17.9%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-19.5%4+-25.3%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.0% 62.5% 1.60 +10.4%

Draw 16.7% 26.0% 3.85 -35.7%

Away win 14.3% 21.1% 4.75 -32.1%

Over 2.5 71.4% 66.7% 1.50 +7.1%

Over 3.5 50.5% 44.4% 2.25 +13.6%

BTTS 62.1% 64.5% 1.55 -3.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.1%

H 69% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 2–0 8.3%

#3 3–1 7.9%

#4 1–1 7.1%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Diraiyah2.6

Al Raed1.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.4% · O3.5 PROB 50.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL DIRAIYAH · PPG 2.64

AL RAED · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.64), Away AVERAGE (1.21) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Al Diraiyah (H) 69.0%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +10.4%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -35.7%

Al Raed (A) 14.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -32.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Diraiyah face Al Raed in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Diraiyah a 69% chance, the draw 17% and Al Raed 14%, so Al Diraiyah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Al Diraiyah and 1.1 for Al Raed (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Diraiyah are averaging 2.64 points per game versus 1.21 for Al Raed. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Al Diraiyah vs Al Raed Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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