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Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 18 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 11:35

Shanghai Shenhua

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Beijing Guoan

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.1%0-23.2%0-31.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.4%1-18.5%1-26.7%1-33.5%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.8%3-16.1%3-24.8%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-15.1%4+-24.0%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 48.8% 2.05 -1.6%

Draw 22.6% 27.0% 3.70 -9.8%

Away win 29.4% 33.3% 3.00 -7.1%

Over 2.5 67.3% 74.1% 1.35 -9.1%

Over 3.5 43.0% 51.0% 1.96 -15.7%

BTTS 63.3% 73.5% 1.36 -13.9%

Home O1.5 59.8% 62.1% 1.61 -3.7%

Away O1.5 47.3% 51.0% 1.96 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 91 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.3%

H 48% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shanghai Shenhua2.1

Beijing Guoan1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANGHAI SHENHUA · PPG 1.82

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Shanghai Shenhua (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -1.6%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.8%

Beijing Guoan (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shanghai Shenhua face Beijing Guoan in China - Super League on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Beijing Guoan 29%, so Shanghai Shenhua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.6 for Beijing Guoan (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.60 for Beijing Guoan.

Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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