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Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 12:00

Shanghai Shenhua

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Henan Jianye

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.0%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.8%1-110.8%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.4%3-15.9%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.1%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 53.5% 1.87 -7.8%

Draw 23.5% 26.3% 3.80 -6.4%

Away win 27.2% 29.4% 3.40 -4.5%

Over 2.5 59.5% 70.4% 1.42 -15.5%

Over 3.5 36.5% 48.8% 2.05 -25.2%

BTTS 57.1% 72.5% 1.38 -21.2%

Home O1.5 50.1% 63.7% 1.57 -21.3%

Away O1.5 34.7% 46.5% 2.15 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.1%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shanghai Shenhua1.8

Henan Jianye1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANGHAI SHENHUA · PPG 1.70

HENAN JIANYE · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shanghai Shenhua (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV -7.8%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.4%

Henan Jianye (A) 27.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shanghai Shenhua face Henan Jianye in China - Super League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Henan Jianye 27%, so Shanghai Shenhua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.1 for Henan Jianye (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.40 for Henan Jianye.

Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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