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Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 23 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 11:35

Wuhan Three Towns

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

SHANGHAI SIPG

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.5%0-24.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.5%1-111.0%1-27.2%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.2%2-19.3%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.0%3-15.3%3-23.4%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.3%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 31.7% 3.15 +49.3%

Draw 24.1% 27.8% 3.60 -7.9%

Away win 28.5% 49.5% 2.02 -25.5%

Over 2.5 59.5% 64.5% 1.55 -7.8%

Over 3.5 36.5% 41.7% 2.40 -12.4%

BTTS 61.0% 69.0% 1.45 -11.6%

Home O1.5 49.2% 43.5% 2.30 +13.2%

Away O1.5 39.4% 56.5% 1.77 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.0%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wuhan Three Towns1.7

SHANGHAI SIPG1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WUHAN THREE TOWNS · PPG 1.56

SHANGHAI SIPG · PPG 1.09

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wuhan Three Towns (H) 47.4%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +49.3%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.9%

SHANGHAI SIPG (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -25.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wuhan Three Towns face SHANGHAI SIPG in China - Super League on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 47% chance, the draw 24% and SHANGHAI SIPG 28%, so Wuhan Three Towns are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.3 for SHANGHAI SIPG (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.09 for SHANGHAI SIPG. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +36.8%.

Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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