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Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 23 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 11:35

Shandong Luneng

PPG 1.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Qingdao Jonoon

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 80.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.8%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.4%1-15.4%1-23.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.6%2-18.1%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.6%3-18.1%3-24.9%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-010.4%4+-112.7%4+-27.8%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.5% 67.6% 1.48 -3.1%

Draw 16.1% 21.3% 4.70 -14.6%

Away win 18.3% 20.4% 4.90 -6.2%

Over 2.5 71.6% 73.5% 1.36 -2.6%

Over 3.5 47.8% 51.8% 1.93 -7.8%

BTTS 63.3% 69.4% 1.44 -8.8%

Home O1.5 80.3% 73.5% 1.36 +9.2%

Away O1.5 36.6% 37.7% 2.65 -3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.3%

H 66% / xG 3.0-1.2 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 6.6%

#4 3–0 6.6%

#5 1–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shandong Luneng3.0

Qingdao Jonoon1.2

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 47.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANDONG LUNENG · PPG 1.91

QINGDAO JONOON · PPG 0.36

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.78 for Home, form 1.91 vs 0.36 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Shandong Luneng (H) 65.5%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -3.1%

Draw 16.1%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -14.6%

Qingdao Jonoon (A) 18.3%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shandong Luneng face Qingdao Jonoon in China - Super League on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shandong Luneng a 66% chance, the draw 16% and Qingdao Jonoon 18%, so Shandong Luneng are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Shandong Luneng and 1.2 for Qingdao Jonoon (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.36 for Qingdao Jonoon. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +9.2%.

Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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