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Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:35

Tianjin Teda

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Beijing Guoan

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.8%0-24.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.8%1-111.9%1-27.3%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.1%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.8%3-14.6%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 32.3% 3.10 +45.7%

Draw 24.1% 29.4% 3.40 -10.8%

Away win 28.9% 47.6% 2.10 -23.6%

Over 2.5 55.2% 56.5% 1.77 -2.3%

Over 3.5 33.1% 33.9% 2.95 -2.4%

BTTS 56.0% 62.5% 1.60 -10.4%

Home O1.5 45.1% 39.2% 2.55 +15.0%

Away O1.5 36.6% 50.0% 2.00 -26.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.0%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tianjin Teda1.5

Beijing Guoan1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.2% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TIANJIN TEDA · PPG 1.20

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 1.44

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tianjin Teda (H) 47.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +45.7%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.8%

Beijing Guoan (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -23.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tianjin Teda face Beijing Guoan in China - Super League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tianjin Teda a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Beijing Guoan 29%, so Tianjin Teda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Tianjin Teda and 1.2 for Beijing Guoan (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.44 for Beijing Guoan. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.8%.

Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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