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Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:00

Shenyang Urban

PPG 1.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sichuan Jiuniu

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.2%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.9%1-19.2%1-24.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.9%3-17.1%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-16.3%4+-23.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 46.5% 2.15 +21.0%

Draw 21.8% 28.2% 3.55 -13.6%

Away win 21.9% 34.5% 2.90 -21.9%

Over 2.5 63.1% 63.7% 1.57 -0.9%

Over 3.5 38.8% 41.7% 2.40 -6.9%

BTTS 56.9% 69.0% 1.45 -17.5%

Home O1.5 61.5% 54.6% 1.83 +12.6%

Away O1.5 31.6% 46.5% 2.15 -32.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob56.9%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 3–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shenyang Urban2.2

Sichuan Jiuniu1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SHENYANG URBAN · PPG 1.64

SICHUAN JIUNIU · PPG 0.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shenyang Urban (H) 56.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +21.0%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -13.6%

Sichuan Jiuniu (A) 21.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shenyang Urban face Sichuan Jiuniu in China - Super League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shenyang Urban a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Sichuan Jiuniu 22%, so Shenyang Urban are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Shenyang Urban and 1.0 for Sichuan Jiuniu (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shenyang Urban are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.36 for Sichuan Jiuniu. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.4%.

Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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