Today / China - Super League / Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long

Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 23 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 12:00

Qingdao Youth Island

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chongqing Tongliang Long

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-19.7%0-23.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.5%1-112.6%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-18.2%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.6%3-13.5%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 49.5% 2.02 +0.8%

Draw 27.1% 29.4% 3.40 -4.7%

Away win 23.0% 29.9% 3.35 -13.8%

Over 2.5 42.7% 51.8% 1.93 -17.6%

Over 3.5 21.1% 29.9% 3.35 -17.6%

BTTS 47.7% 57.8% 1.73 -17.5%

Home O1.5 37.9% 48.8% 2.05 -22.3%

Away O1.5 17.2% 33.9% 2.95 -29.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 12.7%

#2 1–0 16.5%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qingdao Youth Island1.3

Chongqing Tongliang Long0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

QINGDAO YOUTH ISLAND · PPG 1.73

CHONGQING TONGLIANG LONG · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Qingdao Youth Island (H) 49.9%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV +0.8%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.7%

Chongqing Tongliang Long (A) 23.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qingdao Youth Island face Chongqing Tongliang Long in China - Super League on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Chongqing Tongliang Long 23%, so Qingdao Youth Island are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Qingdao Youth Island and 0.8 for Chongqing Tongliang Long (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.09 for Chongqing Tongliang Long.

Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - Super League Predictions