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Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 12:00

Yunnan Yukun

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dalian Zhixing

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.4%0-21.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.8%1-16.5%1-24.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.4%2-18.6%2-25.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.7%3-17.7%3-25.2%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-19.8%4+-26.6%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 48.5% 2.06 +16.4%

Draw 20.9% 26.0% 3.85 -11.7%

Away win 22.6% 34.5% 2.90 -20.7%

Over 2.5 67.4% 72.5% 1.38 -7.0%

Over 3.5 47.2% 51.3% 1.95 -8.0%

BTTS 63.3% 75.2% 1.33 -15.8%

Home O1.5 63.4% 61.7% 1.62 +2.7%

Away O1.5 42.6% 51.8% 1.93 -17.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.3%

H 56% / xG 2.7-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 3–1 7.7%

#3 1–1 6.5%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 2–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yunnan Yukun2.7

Dalian Zhixing1.4

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

YUNNAN YUKUN · PPG 1.82

DALIAN ZHIXING · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.31 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Yunnan Yukun (H) 56.5%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV +16.4%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -11.7%

Dalian Zhixing (A) 22.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yunnan Yukun face Dalian Zhixing in China - Super League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yunnan Yukun a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Dalian Zhixing 23%, so Yunnan Yukun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Yunnan Yukun and 1.4 for Dalian Zhixing (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.80 for Dalian Zhixing. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +28.5%.

Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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