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CF Pachuca vs Puebla Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 03:06

CF Pachuca

PPG 1.47 · HOME

UPCOMING

Puebla

PPG 1.05 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 67.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-16.1%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.4%1-110.8%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.6%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.0%3-15.7%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-13.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 67.1% 1.49 -20.7%

Draw 24.7% 23.3% 4.30 +3.7%

Away win 22.1% 16.7% 6.00 +19.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 60.6% 1.65 -17.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 37.7% 2.65 -14.4%

BTTS 48.8% 57.1% 1.75 -14.6%

Home O1.5 49.2% 65.4% 1.53 -24.7%

Away O1.5 21.1% 26.7% 3.75 -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -15.7%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.8%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 11.9%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CF Pachuca1.8

Puebla0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CF PACHUCA · PPG 1.47

PUEBLA · PPG 1.05

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CF Pachuca (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.49 · IMPLIED 67.1% EV -20.7%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +3.7%

Puebla (A) 22.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

CF Pachuca face Puebla in Mexico - Liga MX on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CF Pachuca a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Puebla 22%, so CF Pachuca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for CF Pachuca and 0.8 for Puebla (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CF Pachuca are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.05 for Puebla. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.8%.

CF Pachuca vs Puebla Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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