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UNAM Pumas U21 vs Queretaro U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:00

UNAM Pumas U21

PPG 1.48 · HOME

UPCOMING

Queretaro U21

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-17.2%0-23.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.3%1-111.7%1-25.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.6%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.5%3-15.2%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% — — —

Draw 28.1% — — —

Away win 23.5% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 47.2% — — —

Away O1.5 26.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNAM Pumas U211.6

Queretaro U211.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UNAM PUMAS U21 · PPG 1.48

QUERETARO U21 · PPG 0.76

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

UNAM Pumas U21 (H) 48.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Queretaro U21 (A) 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

UNAM Pumas U21 face Queretaro U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNAM Pumas U21 a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Queretaro U21 24%, so UNAM Pumas U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for UNAM Pumas U21 and 1.0 for Queretaro U21 (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNAM Pumas U21 are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 0.76 for Queretaro U21.

UNAM Pumas U21 vs Queretaro U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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