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Necaxa U21 vs Club Leon U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 15:00

Necaxa U21

PPG 1.04 · HOME

UPCOMING

Club Leon U21

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-111.8%0-27.1%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.0%1-113.2%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.1%2-17.4%2-24.4%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.3%3-12.7%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 40.9% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 27.4% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 36.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.2%

A 41% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 0–1 11.8%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Necaxa U211.1

Club Leon U211.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NECAXA U21 · PPG 1.04

CLUB LEON U21 · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.08, combined xG 2.32 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Necaxa U21 (H) 31.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Club Leon U21 (A) 40.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Necaxa U21 face Club Leon U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Necaxa U21 a 32% chance, the draw 27% and Club Leon U21 41%, so Club Leon U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Necaxa U21 and 1.2 for Club Leon U21 (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Necaxa U21 are averaging 1.04 points per game versus 1.29 for Club Leon U21.

Necaxa U21 vs Club Leon U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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