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Santos Laguna U21 vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 17:00

Santos Laguna U21

PPG 1.58 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guadalajara Chivas U21

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-110.2%0-23.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.4%1-112.6%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-17.8%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.4%3-13.2%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% — — —

Draw 28.4% — — —

Away win 23.3% — — —

Over 2.5 41.5% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 33.5% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.1%

#2 1–0 17.4%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santos Laguna U211.2

Guadalajara Chivas U210.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTOS LAGUNA U21 · PPG 1.58

GUADALAJARA CHIVAS U21 · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Santos Laguna U21 (H) 48.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Guadalajara Chivas U21 (A) 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos Laguna U21 face Guadalajara Chivas U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos Laguna U21 a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Guadalajara Chivas U21 23%, so Santos Laguna U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Santos Laguna U21 and 0.7 for Guadalajara Chivas U21 (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos Laguna U21 are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.22 for Guadalajara Chivas U21.

Santos Laguna U21 vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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