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Monterrey vs FC Juarez Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 01:10

Monterrey

PPG 1.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Juarez

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-13.2%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.7%1-17.8%1-23.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-19.5%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.6%3-17.7%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-18.3%4+-23.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 65.8% 1.52 -13.4%

Draw 21.7% 22.7% 4.40 -2.7%

Away win 21.4% 18.5% 5.40 +9.3%

Over 2.5 59.5% 64.5% 1.55 -7.8%

Over 3.5 36.5% 42.6% 2.35 -14.2%

BTTS 53.1% 61.7% 1.62 -14.0%

Home O1.5 63.0% 67.6% 1.48 -6.8%

Away O1.5 23.6% 31.3% 3.20 -14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 32%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 57% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.8%

#4 3–0 8.6%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monterrey2.4

FC Juarez0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTERREY · PPG 1.91

FC JUAREZ · PPG 0.95

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.53 for Home, form 1.91 vs 0.95 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Monterrey (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -13.4%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -2.7%

FC Juarez (A) 21.4%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monterrey face FC Juarez in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monterrey a 57% chance, the draw 22% and FC Juarez 21%, so Monterrey are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Monterrey and 0.9 for FC Juarez (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monterrey are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.95 for FC Juarez. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.8%.

Monterrey vs FC Juarez Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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