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Atlas vs Tigres UANL Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 03:10

Atlas

PPG 1.28 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tigres UANL

PPG 0.99 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+10.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.8%0-23.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.3%1-110.5%1-26.6%1-32.8%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.6%3-15.8%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.0%4+-22.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 31.3% 3.20 +69.0%

Draw 23.0% 30.3% 3.30 -14.5%

Away win 24.2% 45.5% 2.20 -28.1%

Over 2.5 59.5% 47.6% 2.10 +24.9%

Over 3.5 36.5% 26.3% 3.80 +38.7%

BTTS 60.3% 54.6% 1.83 +10.3%

Home O1.5 51.8% 33.3% 3.00 +55.4%

Away O1.5 36.6% 43.5% 2.30 -15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 32%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.3%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–0 8.3%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlas1.8

Tigres UANL1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLAS · PPG 1.28

TIGRES UANL · PPG 0.99

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atlas (H) 52.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +69.0%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.5%

Tigres UANL (A) 24.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlas face Tigres UANL in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlas a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Tigres UANL 24%, so Atlas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Atlas and 1.3 for Tigres UANL (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlas are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 0.99 for Tigres UANL. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +93.0%.

Atlas vs Tigres UANL Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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