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Necaxa vs Leon Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 01:00

Necaxa

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Leon

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.9%0-22.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.5%1-19.8%1-24.6%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.2%3-16.7%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-15.4%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 43.5% 2.30 +24.2%

Draw 23.6% 27.8% 3.60 -9.0%

Away win 22.4% 35.7% 2.80 -22.4%

Over 2.5 53.7% 60.6% 1.65 -11.4%

Over 3.5 31.8% 37.7% 2.65 -15.7%

BTTS 53.1% 65.4% 1.53 -18.8%

Home O1.5 54.6% 51.3% 1.95 +6.5%

Away O1.5 26.2% 45.5% 2.20 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -15.7%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 54% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Necaxa2.0

Leon0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NECAXA · PPG 1.86

LEON · PPG 0.79

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.08 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Necaxa (H) 54.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +24.2%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.0%

Leon (A) 22.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Necaxa face Leon in Mexico - Liga MX on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Necaxa a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Leon 22%, so Necaxa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Necaxa and 0.9 for Leon (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Necaxa are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.79 for Leon. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.8%.

Necaxa vs Leon Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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