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Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 01:10

Santos Laguna

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guadalajara Chivas

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-110.2%0-26.4%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.1%1-112.8%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.3%2-18.0%2-25.1%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.6%3-13.4%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 18.5% 5.40 +88.5%

Draw 32.2% 22.7% 4.40 +41.7%

Away win 33.0% 65.8% 1.52 -49.8%

Over 2.5 48.9% 64.5% 1.55 -24.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 42.6% 2.35 -19.5%

BTTS 51.8% 61.7% 1.62 -16.1%

Home O1.5 36.7% 31.3% 3.20 +17.4%

Away O1.5 36.6% 67.6% 1.48 -45.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.8%

D 32% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 0–1 10.2%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santos Laguna1.3

Guadalajara Chivas1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTOS LAGUNA · PPG 1.27

GUADALAJARA CHIVAS · PPG 1.42

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Santos Laguna (H) 34.9%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +88.5%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +41.7%

Guadalajara Chivas (A) 33.0%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -49.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos Laguna face Guadalajara Chivas in Mexico - Liga MX on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos Laguna a 35% chance, the draw 32% and Guadalajara Chivas 33%, so Santos Laguna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Santos Laguna and 1.3 for Guadalajara Chivas (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos Laguna are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.42 for Guadalajara Chivas. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +53.4%.

Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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