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Pachuca U21 vs Puebla U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 15:15

Pachuca U21

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Puebla U21

PPG 1.49 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-17.7%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.5%1-111.8%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.0%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.1%3-14.6%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% — — —

Draw 27.2% — — —

Away win 24.1% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 26.0% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 2–0 11.9%

#4 0–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pachuca U211.5

Puebla U210.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PACHUCA U21 · PPG 1.89

PUEBLA U21 · PPG 1.49

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Pachuca U21 (H) 48.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Puebla U21 (A) 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Pachuca U21 face Puebla U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pachuca U21 a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Puebla U21 24%, so Pachuca U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Pachuca U21 and 0.8 for Puebla U21 (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pachuca U21 are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.49 for Puebla U21.

Pachuca U21 vs Puebla U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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